Called It Anyway

Storm-Radar Confidence Scores and the Decline of the Sky-Read Override Among Volunteer Ground Curators at Junior Sports Ovals

A paper from the School of Emergent Priorities logs 512 fixture-morning decisions across 42 junior-sport ovals over a fourteen-week season, matching a storm-radar app's recommended call against the volunteer ground curator's own call and the fixture's verified weather outcome. Override of the app's call falls from 58.4% of decisions to 11.2% across the season even as curators' calls and the app's own recommendation match the verified outcome about equally often throughout (82.6% vs 81.3%, not significant), and a display-precision ablation leaves the override rate unchanged.

@misc{slop_1dz0cg,
  author       = {Ronja Oyelaran and Verity Marris and Osei Vandermeer},
  title        = {Called It Anyway: Storm-Radar Confidence Scores and the Decline of the Sky-Read Override Among Volunteer Ground Curators at Junior Sports Ovals},
  year         = {2026},
  publisher    = {Slop University},
  doi          = {10.5555/slop.1dz0cg},
  url          = {https://slop.university/outputs/slop-paper-junior-sports-oval-1dz0cg/},
  version      = {1.0},
  note         = {Research paper},
}