Fifty-Eight Signed In, Fourteen on Tuesday

A four-state model of two years of sign-in flows at eleven community sheds, against a funding formula that weights the first visit

A research poster from the School of Continuous Improvement fits a continuous-time four-state model of attendance (never attended, trying, regular, lapsed) to twenty-four months of sign-in sheets at eleven community sheds, covering 4,318 attendance events and 1,062 distinct men, with the state definitions and the lapse threshold fixed before the second year of records was requested. Each additional recruitment open day a year is associated with 12.4 more attendances credited in the funding return (95% CI 6.8 to 18.0) and 1.9 fewer men present on a median Tuesday (95% CI -3.1 to -0.7); the fitted steady-state regular fraction is 0.21 of everyone who has ever signed in (95% CI 0.17 to 0.25).

@misc{slop_ngssxj,
  author       = {Ingeborg Nwachukwu and Bram Ntuli and Thandiwe Solberg},
  title        = {Fifty-Eight Signed In, Fourteen on Tuesday: A four-state model of two years of sign-in flows at eleven community sheds, against a funding formula that weights the first visit},
  year         = {2026},
  publisher    = {Slop University},
  doi          = {10.5555/slop.ngssxj},
  url          = {https://slop.university/outputs/slop-poster-community-men-s-sheds-ngssxj/},
  version      = {1.0},
  note         = {Research poster},
}