Paid Less, Mailed More

A Regression-Discontinuity Estimate of a Stamp-Duty Concession Threshold's Effect on Post-Settlement Real-Estate Marketing Mail

A paper from the School of Emergent Priorities treats a state's first-home-buyer stamp-duty concession threshold as a sharp regression-discontinuity design, finding that settlements just below the threshold draw 52% more real-estate marketing mail a month than settlements just above it, an effect stable across bandwidths, a bunching correction, and three placebo cutoffs. The scheme's Post-Settlement Integrity Unit has begun enrolling concession recipients in a shared marketing vendor panel by default on the strength of the finding.

@misc{slop_36dzlr,
  author       = {Marek Solheim and Kwame Lindqvist and Anouk Mensah},
  title        = {Paid Less, Mailed More: A Regression-Discontinuity Estimate of a Stamp-Duty Concession Threshold's Effect on Post-Settlement Real-Estate Marketing Mail},
  year         = {2026},
  publisher    = {Slop University},
  doi          = {10.5555/slop.36dzlr},
  url          = {https://slop.university/outputs/slop-paper-a-state-s-first-home-buyer-36dzlr/},
  version      = {1.0},
  note         = {Research paper},
}