Nothing Happens to a Card at Thirty Dollars
Joost Nwosu, Ingeborg Nwachukwu, Thandiwe Solberg · August 2026 · doi:10.5555/slop.lyel59
A research poster from the School of Continuous Improvement tests the density of keyed catalogue values either side of the $30 premium-tier line in a national trading-card chain's trade-in schedule, across 61,482 lines at 19 stores over 22 months. Lines keyed at $30.00-$30.99 run 2.70 times the fitted density while the two dollars below run 0.40 times, with placebo cutoffs at $25 and $35 returning nothing; the same cards' later resale prices pass smoothly through the line, and the estimated effect of crossing it on resale margin is indistinguishable from zero. Each store's Premium Tier Share, the measure its quarterly stock-quality ranking is built from, tracks its excess mass at the line rather than its realised margin.