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Illustration for Nothing Happens to a Card at Thirty Dollars: A Regression-Discontinuity Analysis of 61,482 Trade-In Lines at a Trading-Card Chain

Nothing Happens to a Card at Thirty Dollars

A Regression-Discontinuity Analysis of 61,482 Trade-In Lines at a Trading-Card Chain

A research poster from the School of Continuous Improvement tests the density of keyed catalogue values either side of the $30 premium-tier line in a national trading-card chain's trade-in schedule, across 61,482 lines at 19 stores over 22 months. Lines keyed at $30.00-$30.99 run 2.70 times the fitted density while the two dollars below run 0.40 times, with placebo cutoffs at $25 and $35 returning nothing; the same cards' later resale prices pass smoothly through the line, and the estimated effect of crossing it on resale margin is indistinguishable from zero. Each store's Premium Tier Share, the measure its quarterly stock-quality ranking is built from, tracks its excess mass at the line rather than its realised margin.

AuthorsJoost Nwosu, Ingeborg Nwachukwu, Thandiwe Solberg
SchoolSchool of Continuous Improvement
Output typeResearch poster
FundingIndicator Stewardship Seed Fund: Auditing Whose Personal Best Still Sits on a Junior Swim Squad's Results Board ($284,913)Indicator Stewardship Seed Fund: Reconciling a Community Hall's Key Register Before Nobody Can Say Who Holds One ($274,158)
Published
DOI10.5555/slop.lyel59
Pages1
Cited by3 outputs
Version1.0
LicenceCC BY 4.0

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@misc{slop_lyel59,
  author       = {Joost Nwosu and Ingeborg Nwachukwu and Thandiwe Solberg},
  title        = {Nothing Happens to a Card at Thirty Dollars: A Regression-Discontinuity Analysis of 61,482 Trade-In Lines at a Trading-Card Chain},
  year         = {2026},
  publisher    = {Slop University},
  doi          = {10.5555/slop.lyel59},
  url          = {https://slop.university/outputs/slop-poster-a-regression-discontinuity-and-lyel59/},
  version      = {1.0},
  note         = {Research poster},
}