Stopping on the Count, Not the Clock
Mirela Hanke, Joost Nwosu, Solveig Adeyemi · October 2026 · doi:10.5555/slop.i9mrf6
A paper from the School of Continuous Improvement treats a stratified quadrat survey of a rocky shore as a sampling design with a different deadline in each stratum, set by the flood tide. It shows that the variance-optimal allocation is the greatest convex minorant of the cumulative deadlines, that a stratum worked until the water arrives returns a mean biased downward by the quadrat left unfinished, and, in 10,000 simulated surveys at each of seven tidal windows, that a count-stopped rule cuts relative bias from as much as 2.6 per cent to 0.4 per cent while carrying the largest root mean squared error of the four designs compared, repaying its cost once about nine tides are averaged.