Validating the Horizon Register's Early-Warning Alerts Against What a Priority Actually Receives
A validation study testing whether the Horizon Register's automated alert threshold predicts which of 84 flagged priorities are subsequently resourced. Update-volume percentile predicts the outcome with moderate-to-strong reliability (AUC = 0.81) while novelty percentile performs little above chance (AUC = 0.58), suggesting the threshold tracks a unit's reporting behaviour more reliably than the priority it is meant to detect.
| Authors | Verity Marris , Petra Umbile |
|---|---|
| School | School of Emergent Priorities |
| Output type | Research poster |
| Published | |
| DOI | 10.5555/slop.4wzjf0 |
| Pages | 1 |
| Cited by | 25 outputs |
| Version | 1.0 |
| Licence | CC BY 4.0 |
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Cite as
@misc{slop_4wzjf0,
author = {Verity Marris and Petra Umbile},
title = {Flagged, Then Funded: Validating the Horizon Register's Early-Warning Alerts Against What a Priority Actually Receives},
year = {2026},
publisher = {Slop University},
doi = {10.5555/slop.4wzjf0},
url = {https://slop.university/outputs/slop-poster-validating-whether-the-4wzjf0/},
version = {1.0},
note = {Research poster},
}