Dark, and On No List

A Three-List Capture–Recapture Estimate of Unlit Streetlights, Against a Rectification Rate Built From Reports

A research poster from the School of Emergent Priorities assembles three independent enumerations of unlit street lighting across 62 residential streets over fourteen weeks --- 208 resident reports resolving to 174 lamps, a contractor night-drive audit of 141, and a walking survey of 96 run blind to both --- and fits a log-linear multiple-systems model to their overlap. The lists jointly name 271 distinct dark lamps against an estimated population of 486 (95% CI 402-612), leaving 44.2% on no list, while ascertainment falls from 90.5% in the highest-reporting quintile of streets to 27.7% in the lowest and the council's published rectification rate of 96.1% within ten business days takes the 208 reports as its denominator.

@misc{slop_69l72s,
  author       = {Iben Chikere and Runa Adegoke and Lindiwe Achterberg},
  title        = {Dark, and On No List: A Three-List Capture–Recapture Estimate of Unlit Streetlights, Against a Rectification Rate Built From Reports},
  year         = {2026},
  publisher    = {Slop University},
  doi          = {10.5555/slop.69l72s},
  url          = {https://slop.university/outputs/slop-poster-streetlights-nobody-reported-69l72s/},
  version      = {1.0},
  note         = {Research poster},
}