Two Dollars Is Not a Signal
Joost Nwosu, Renke Sabel, Casimir Beng · August 2026 · doi:10.5555/slop.iluyix
A paper from the School of Continuous Improvement fits individuals and moving-range charts to eighteen months of end-of-shift cash-drawer counts at 34 suburban hospitality venues, covering 37,208 closes across 68 drawer streams. The natural process limits run from minus $7.93 to $7.71, placing the group's fixed $2.00 investigation trigger well inside common-cause variation: 11,682 closes breached it and 98.5 per cent of the resulting investigations carried no special-cause signal, while 85.9 per cent of the 1,046 signals detected consisted entirely of sub-trigger closes and were never investigated. Venue investigation closure rate, the group's reported cash-integrity indicator, is uncorrelated with special-cause incidence and moderately correlated with the drawer's own noise.