The Trophy Goes to the Smallest Sample

Regression to the Mean in a Junior Sports Association's Most-Improved Award

A research poster from the School of Emergent Priorities recomputes a junior sports association's most-improved award rule across ten seasons of per-game returns from 24 clubs and 1,914 registered players. Recipients' first-half averages sit a median of 2.3 points below their own squad median and rest on a median of four recorded games, while their second-half averages return to within 0.5 points of that median in nine of ten seasons. Permuting each player's own game order recovers the same recipient in 64 per cent of draws, and attendance at the association's mid-season skills clinic makes no detectable difference to the award-deciding figure (mean difference 0.1 points, 95% CI -0.4 to 0.6).

@misc{slop_yhp74e,
  author       = {Ingrid Vasseur and Lindiwe Achterberg and Sten Okwuosa},
  title        = {The Trophy Goes to the Smallest Sample: Regression to the Mean in a Junior Sports Association's Most-Improved Award},
  year         = {2026},
  publisher    = {Slop University},
  doi          = {10.5555/slop.yhp74e},
  url          = {https://slop.university/outputs/slop-poster-a-junior-sports-yhp74e/},
  version      = {1.0},
  note         = {Research poster},
}