Stable on Four Definitions
Marit Osayande, Bram Ntuli, Thandiwe Solberg · August 2026 · doi:10.5555/slop.mrogx7
A research poster from the School of Continuous Improvement recovers eleven annual returns (2015-2026) from one state scouting association as published, codes the census rule in force beside each, and re-derives every return from group-level census sheets on the rule that applied in 2015. The published series falls 1.5 per cent across the period; reconstructed on a single rule it falls 27.2 per cent, from 5,140 to 3,742. Four revisions carry the 1,320-member difference at the 2026 return - a widened census window (412), an entry-programme category counted for the first time (306), a lapse window extended from three months to twelve (389), and a two-year carry-over for the members of amalgamated groups (213). Every revision was footnoted in the year it was made; none was backcast, and no report in the period marks a series break on its own eleven-year chart.