Perfect Foresight, Same Stickers

A Decision-Analytic Valuation of a Grocery Chain's Shelf-Life Forecast Against the Fixed Markdown Run It Is Meant to Steer

A research poster from the School of Emergent Priorities values the per-line shelf-life forecast one grocery chain runs its evening markdowns from, across 1.18 million chiller and bakery line-days in 41 stores over 26 weeks. The expected value of perfect information about next-day sell-through is $18.40 per store-week against $61.20 in forecast production cost, and at the chain's audited forecast skill the forecast-led run retains $7.30 per store-week less than a fixed 18:00 rule; reported diversion moves 0.3 points across the entire feasible policy set, because a markdown sold at any price counts as diverted.

@misc{slop_mjevxm,
  author       = {Petra Umbile and Runa Adegoke and Kwame Lindqvist},
  title        = {Perfect Foresight, Same Stickers: A Decision-Analytic Valuation of a Grocery Chain's Shelf-Life Forecast Against the Fixed Markdown Run It Is Meant to Steer},
  year         = {2026},
  publisher    = {Slop University},
  doi          = {10.5555/slop.mjevxm},
  url          = {https://slop.university/outputs/slop-poster-the-yellow-reduced-to-clear-mjevxm/},
  version      = {1.0},
  note         = {Research poster},
}