Most of the Movement Is One Bakery

Variance Decomposition of a Food Relief Network's Meals-Provided Figure Across 34 Sites and 21,412 Consignments

A research poster from the School of Continuous Improvement reconstructs a food relief network's annual meals-provided figure from 21,412 consignment records across 34 agency sites over two reporting years, then apportions its variance by first-order and total-effect Sobol indices. Reconstruction tracks the published figure to within 2.1 per cent, and a single donor's bakery-surplus collection schedule carries a total-effect index of 0.613, against 0.111 for the four inputs under direct network control.

@misc{slop_wdtr79,
  author       = {Bram Ntuli and Osei Vandermeer and Thandiwe Solberg},
  title        = {Most of the Movement Is One Bakery: Variance Decomposition of a Food Relief Network's Meals-Provided Figure Across 34 Sites and 21,412 Consignments},
  year         = {2026},
  publisher    = {Slop University},
  doi          = {10.5555/slop.wdtr79},
  url          = {https://slop.university/outputs/slop-poster-food-bank-pallets-wdtr79/},
  version      = {1.0},
  note         = {Research poster},
}