The Second Sign Buys Nothing

Sign Density and Same-Day Recall of the Displayed Fire Danger Rating Across 34 Rural Routes

A research poster from the School of Emergent Priorities intercepts 1,180 drivers at rest areas and fuel stops along 34 rural routes across eleven weeks of one declared fire season, scoring each respondent's account of the fire danger rating displayed on the last roadside sign they passed against the rating actually displayed, with sign passage taken from the road authority's asset register rather than self-report. Correct recall is 21.4 per cent with no sign passed and 62.8 per cent after one, and does not move above one (63.6 per cent at three signs, 63.9 per cent at five; marginal return above one sign +1.3 points, 95% CI -3.9 to 6.5), while the district's signs-per-100 km awareness indicator rises monotonically by construction.

@misc{slop_ntcw6j,
  author       = {Ronja Oyelaran and Lindiwe Achterberg and Anouk Mensah},
  title        = {The Second Sign Buys Nothing: Sign Density and Same-Day Recall of the Displayed Fire Danger Rating Across 34 Rural Routes},
  year         = {2026},
  publisher    = {Slop University},
  doi          = {10.5555/slop.ntcw6j},
  url          = {https://slop.university/outputs/slop-poster-the-roadside-fire-danger-ntcw6j/},
  version      = {1.0},
  note         = {Research poster},
}