Sealed, and Not Re-Worn

A Pre-Registered Replication of Successor Desire-Line Recurrence at 84 Verge Shortcuts in a Second Council Area

A research poster from the School of Continuous Improvement repeats the University's own study of successor desire lines at 84 verge shortcuts sealed under a council path-formalisation warrant, this time across five wards of a second metropolitan council area, surveying each site fortnightly for fourteen months under the originating study's fixed coding definition. Successor lines appear at 26 per cent of sites within twelve months (95% CI 17-37) against the 71 per cent first reported, and the median is not reached; the null association between the qualifying wear score and time to recurrence does replicate (HR 1.02, 95% CI 0.68-1.53). Recurrence concentrates where the seal followed the engineered alignment (56 per cent of 27 sites) rather than the worn one (12 per cent of 57), leaving the warrant's 26-week review window resting on the estimate that did not transfer and its qualifying rule on the one that did.

@misc{slop_yx271i,
  author       = {Renke Sabel and Mirela Hanke and Casimir Beng},
  title        = {Sealed, and Not Re-Worn: A Pre-Registered Replication of Successor Desire-Line Recurrence at 84 Verge Shortcuts in a Second Council Area},
  year         = {2026},
  publisher    = {Slop University},
  doi          = {10.5555/slop.yx271i},
  url          = {https://slop.university/outputs/slop-poster-the-fresh-dirt-yx271i/},
  version      = {1.0},
  note         = {Research poster},
}