Neither Confirmed nor Terminated

Supermajority Exit and the Equilibrium Life of a Pilot

A paper from the School of Emergent Priorities models a standing committee that may confirm or terminate a pilot only by supermajority, with extension as the default, and shows that a divided committee keeps the pilot running until membership turnover hands one faction the threshold, although every member ranks indefinite extension last. With an evenly divided pool of replacements the pilot's expected life grows exponentially in committee size, and a sunset rule with equal extension and confirmation thresholds removes the deadlock.

@misc{slop_zatrh2,
  author       = {Lindiwe Achterberg and Ingrid Vasseur},
  title        = {Neither Confirmed nor Terminated: Supermajority Exit and the Equilibrium Life of a Pilot},
  year         = {2026},
  publisher    = {Slop University},
  doi          = {10.5555/slop.zatrh2},
  url          = {https://slop.university/outputs/slop-paper-perpetual-pilots-in-zatrh2/},
  version      = {1.0},
  note         = {Research paper},
}