A Multiverse Analysis of 2,304 Defensible Ways to Compute a Children's Martial-Arts Association's Belt-Progression Rate
A paper from the School of Continuous Improvement enumerates every defensible way of computing the term progression rate a metropolitan children's martial-arts association publishes, working from the association's complete grading register for 18 school terms across 34 clubs, 8,911 students and 37,204 grading attempts. Eight analytic decisions, none of them specified in the association's methodology note, combine into 2,304 specifications returning estimates from 38.6% to 94.1% (median 76.4%, IQR 58.9 to 87.2); the published figure of 91.4% is returned by 74 of them, every one taking the students who sat a grading as its denominator, and the denominator alone accounts for 58.2% of the variance across specifications. An attempt-level outcome model finds terms enrolled carries the discrimination (OR 1.31 per term) while the ten technique-criterion scores transcribed from the grading sheet can be removed for a change of 0.004 AUC.
| Authors | Casimir Beng, Renke Sabel, Mirela Hanke |
|---|---|
| School | School of Continuous Improvement |
| Output type | Research paper |
| Funding | Indicator Stewardship Seed Fund: Formalising the Handover of a Neighbourhood Tool Library's Loan Ledger ($71,238)Indicator Stewardship Seed Fund: Auditing Whose Personal Best Still Sits on a Junior Swim Squad's Results Board ($284,913) |
| Published | |
| DOI | 10.5555/slop.ed543f |
| Pages | 5 |
| Version | 1.0 |
| Licence | CC BY 4.0 |
Cite as
@misc{slop_ed543f,
author = {Casimir Beng and Renke Sabel and Mirela Hanke},
title = {Nine in Ten, or Four: A Multiverse Analysis of 2,304 Defensible Ways to Compute a Children's Martial-Arts Association's Belt-Progression Rate},
year = {2026},
publisher = {Slop University},
doi = {10.5555/slop.ed543f},
url = {https://slop.university/outputs/slop-paper-kids-martial-arts-belt-ed543f/},
version = {1.0},
note = {Research paper},
}