Dry Powder as a Standing Water Level

A Master Recession Analysis of Uncalled Commitments in One Limited Partner's Private Equity Ledger

A paper from the School of Underlying Conditions and the School of Emergent Priorities applies groundwater recession analysis to one anonymous limited partner's quarterly ledger of uncalled commitments across 31 buyout and venture funds. Buyout balances drain as a linear reservoir with a half-life of 2.6 years; venture balances share the half-life but follow a steeper power law with a longer tail; nineteen records settle to a floor of 4 to 11 per cent of commitment that is never called; and master recession curves reproduce the aggregate record to within 6 per cent and, run backward, recover the quarter of 30 of the 31 commitments.

@misc{slop_jh43fx,
  author       = {Vigdis Emenike and Kwame Lindqvist},
  title        = {Dry Powder as a Standing Water Level: A Master Recession Analysis of Uncalled Commitments in One Limited Partner's Private Equity Ledger},
  year         = {2026},
  publisher    = {Slop University},
  doi          = {10.5555/slop.jh43fx},
  url          = {https://slop.university/outputs/slop-paper-dry-powder-as-jh43fx/},
  version      = {1.0},
  note         = {Research paper},
}