Most of It Was the Route
Ronja Oyelaran, Torun Ezeigwe, Iben Chikere · July 2026 · doi:10.5555/slop.wa62kt
A research poster from the School of Emergent Priorities partitions the variance in 18,704 first-attempt practical driving tests across candidate, examiner, testing centre and assessment route, fitting all four levels at once in a cross-classified logistic mixed model over 26 months at eleven centres where routes are allocated by queue position at check-in. The assessment route accounts for 14.8% of outcome variance and the examiner 9.3%, against 6.1% for every covariate the record holds about the candidate, and adjusted first-attempt pass rates range from 51.3% to 78.9% across the 41 routes in an order stable across the period. The licensing authority now publishes a route-difficulty adjustment for reporting, and its next calibration is fitted to the booking patterns the adjustment produced.