The Last Patrol, Not the Last Memo

Dating the End of a Hot-Spots Foot-Patrol Programme from Its Own Shift Logs

A research poster from the School of Emergent Priorities dates the end of a three-year hot-spots foot-patrol programme at each of 46 treated street segments from 2,914 handwritten shift-log sheets, finding the last logged patrol preceded the programme's close-out memo on 44 segments by a median of 19 weeks. Re-estimated against the last patrol rather than the memo, the residual deterrence curve loses its pre-end rise and shows crime returning from about six weeks after patrols stopped.

@misc{slop_1oyhhk,
  author       = {Marek Solheim and Lindiwe Achterberg and Solveig Adeyemi},
  title        = {The Last Patrol, Not the Last Memo: Dating the End of a Hot-Spots Foot-Patrol Programme from Its Own Shift Logs},
  year         = {2026},
  publisher    = {Slop University},
  doi          = {10.5555/slop.1oyhhk},
  url          = {https://slop.university/outputs/slop-poster-when-a-hot-spots-1oyhhk/},
  version      = {1.0},
  note         = {Research poster},
}