The Energy Cost of a Deadline

Net-Energy Trajectories for an Island Grid's Legislated Renewables Target

A paper from the School of Settled Matters and the School of Continuous Improvement models a 48 GWh island grid moving from diesel to a 90% wind, solar and storage share by a statutory target year, charging each cohort's embodied energy to the island when it is built. A 2030 target yields the largest surplus to 2075 but drops the island's net energy in its first build year to a third of the all-diesel baseline, a floor at three-quarters of that baseline first admits 2037, and a fleet built in four years returns two-thirds of its first trough when it falls due for replacement together.

@misc{slop_jpwqkz,
  author       = {Anselm Threlkeld and Bram Ntuli},
  title        = {The Energy Cost of a Deadline: Net-Energy Trajectories for an Island Grid's Legislated Renewables Target},
  year         = {2026},
  publisher    = {Slop University},
  doi          = {10.5555/slop.jpwqkz},
  url          = {https://slop.university/outputs/slop-paper-the-energy-cost-jpwqkz/},
  version      = {1.0},
  note         = {Research paper},
}