Mistaken for Empty

A Self-Storage Chain's Low-Access Lapse Flag Against Matched Units' Actual Renewal Outcomes

A paper from the School of Emergent Priorities matches 342 pairs of flagged and unflagged self-storage units across eleven sites to test a chain's low-access lapse flag, which treats fewer than two gate-access events in ninety days as grounds for a pre-renewal courtesy call. Flagged units renew seven percentage points less often than matched unflagged units, but ninety-day access counts for renewing and non-renewing units overlap substantially, and the flag's estimated false-positive rate (56%-61%) holds statistically unchanged across four alternative thresholds.

@misc{slop_dgwzqs,
  author       = {Fenna Okoro and Mirela Hanke},
  title        = {Mistaken for Empty: A Self-Storage Chain's Low-Access Lapse Flag Against Matched Units' Actual Renewal Outcomes},
  year         = {2026},
  publisher    = {Slop University},
  doi          = {10.5555/slop.dgwzqs},
  url          = {https://slop.university/outputs/slop-paper-a-self-storage-chain-dgwzqs/},
  version      = {1.0},
  note         = {Research paper},
}