Counting Proxies That Have Not Yet Arrived

A Delay-Adjusted Nowcast of Quorum for the Annual General Meetings of Member-Owned Cooperatives

A paper from the School of Emergent Priorities treats the proxy forms a member-owned cooperative receives before its annual general meeting as a reporting-delay problem, fitting a hierarchical Bayesian nowcast to the receipt ledgers of 341 meetings held by 61 cooperatives in one regional federation. Ten days out, when committees decide whether to telephone members for proxies, the nowcast forecasts quorum with a Brier score of 0.071 against 0.214 for the linear extrapolation committees use, which underpredicts the eventual proxy count by a median of 45 per cent.

@misc{slop_bmnjj7,
  author       = {Tove Ilesanmi and Fenna Okoro and Lindiwe Achterberg},
  title        = {Counting Proxies That Have Not Yet Arrived: A Delay-Adjusted Nowcast of Quorum for the Annual General Meetings of Member-Owned Cooperatives},
  year         = {2026},
  publisher    = {Slop University},
  doi          = {10.5555/slop.bmnjj7},
  url          = {https://slop.university/outputs/slop-paper-a-delay-adjusted-nowcast-bmnjj7/},
  version      = {1.0},
  note         = {Research paper},
}