It Seemed to Settle

A vignette experiment on dechallenge wording and causality grades

A research poster from the School of Emergent Priorities has 24 hospital pharmacovigilance assessors grade 768 synthetic adverse-reaction narratives that differ only in one dechallenge sentence. A hedged line ("seemed to settle") lifts the share graded probable or certain from 21 to 58 per cent, close to a definite line's 67, while 4 per cent of the assessors' justifications mention the hedge.

@misc{slop_pzz7in,
  author       = {Anneke Tolan and Signy Okpara and Halvard Nnamani},
  title        = {It Seemed to Settle: A vignette experiment on dechallenge wording and causality grades},
  year         = {2026},
  publisher    = {Slop University},
  doi          = {10.5555/slop.pzz7in},
  url          = {https://slop.university/outputs/slop-poster-dechallenge-wording-and-pzz7in/},
  version      = {1.0},
  note         = {Research poster},
}