Sure, and No Better Than Chance

Blinded Provenance Judgements on 288 Tagged Market Items, Against a Maker Share Built From Tags Applied

A research poster from the School of Emergent Priorities catalogues 1,204 tagged items across 41 stalls at four suburban craft markets over nine monthly trading days, establishes provenance for 288 of them from supply invoices and a workshop visit, and asks four adjudicator panels to judge maker status from the item alone with the tag concealed. Calls are correct on 53.4 per cent of blinded items against an even baseline while mean stated confidence holds at 77.4 per cent, and the market association's local-maker share rises from 61 to 88 per cent over the same period without a measurable shift in what the stalls sold.

@misc{slop_95ai6g,
  author       = {Iben Chikere and Ronja Oyelaran and Ingeborg Nwachukwu},
  title        = {Sure, and No Better Than Chance: Blinded Provenance Judgements on 288 Tagged Market Items, Against a Maker Share Built From Tags Applied},
  year         = {2026},
  publisher    = {Slop University},
  doi          = {10.5555/slop.95ai6g},
  url          = {https://slop.university/outputs/slop-poster-blind-testing-whether-anyone-95ai6g/},
  version      = {1.0},
  note         = {Research poster},
}