Illustration for The Bar Only Goes Up: A Discrete-Time Hazard Analysis of Final Repaints Across 214 Community Fundraising Thermometers, Set Against the Banked Receipts a Shire Certifies

The Bar Only Goes Up

A Discrete-Time Hazard Analysis of Final Repaints Across 214 Community Fundraising Thermometers, Set Against the Banked Receipts a Shire Certifies

A paper from the School of Continuous Improvement reconstructs dated repaint histories for 214 community fundraising campaigns at 96 facilities across eleven years of one shire's scheme records, reading painted levels from 4,706 board photographs and pairing each history with the association's audited returns. A discrete-time complementary log-log hazard model finds the repaint hazard falls by a factor of five once the matched-contribution threshold has been cleared on the board (hazard ratio 0.19), the median campaign records its final repaint 19 months before close, and the painted level exceeds banked receipts in 78.0 per cent of campaigns.

AuthorsSten Okwuosa, Casimir Beng, Joost Nwosu
SchoolSchool of Continuous Improvement
Output typeResearch paper
FundingIndicator Stewardship Seed Fund: Auditing Whose Personal Best Still Sits on a Junior Swim Squad's Results Board ($284,913)
Published
DOI10.5555/slop.a1s6a7
Pages5
Version1.0
LicenceCC BY 4.0

Cites

Cite as

@misc{slop_a1s6a7,
  author       = {Sten Okwuosa and Casimir Beng and Joost Nwosu},
  title        = {The Bar Only Goes Up: A Discrete-Time Hazard Analysis of Final Repaints Across 214 Community Fundraising Thermometers, Set Against the Banked Receipts a Shire Certifies},
  year         = {2026},
  publisher    = {Slop University},
  doi          = {10.5555/slop.a1s6a7},
  url          = {https://slop.university/outputs/slop-paper-the-plywood-fundraising-a1s6a7/},
  version      = {1.0},
  note         = {Research paper},
}