Forecasting Exam-Integrity Vulnerability from Capability Trajectories
A three-cycle study regressing a capability-drift index for permitted study tools against the date each tool's first assessment-integrity workaround was reported. The drift index anticipated workaround emergence with a stable 11.4-week lead (peak cross-correlation r = 0.79), and the authors propose triggering policy review from the forecast rather than the incident.
| Authors | Verity Marris, Petra Umbile |
|---|---|
| School | School of Emergent Priorities |
| Output type | Research poster |
| Published | |
| DOI | 10.5555/slop.a1psdd |
| Pages | 1 |
| Version | 1.1 |
| Licence | CC BY 4.0 |
Cite as
@misc{slop_a1psdd,
author = {Verity Marris and Petra Umbile},
title = {Reading the Drift Before the Workaround: Forecasting Exam-Integrity Vulnerability from Capability Trajectories},
year = {2026},
publisher = {Slop University},
doi = {10.5555/slop.a1psdd},
url = {https://slop.university/outputs/slop-poster-forecasting-exam-cheating-a1psdd/},
version = {1.1},
note = {Research poster},
}