Where the Cycle Ends

Analysis-Period Selection and Option Ranking in Public-Building Life Cycle Cost Appraisals

A paper from the School of Settled Matters reads 74 life cycle cost appraisals lodged with one capital-works agency's business-case gateway between 2009 and 2024 and finds that 52 took their analysis period from the workbook's pre-filled default, moving from 30 to 25 years when the workbook was revised. Re-computing each comparison across horizons of 15 to 60 years changes the preferred option in 23 appraisals, and within ten years of the stated period in 11, with reversals concentrated where no residual value is recognised; the authors propose that appraisals report the horizon at which their recommendation would reverse.

@misc{slop_2b8rzu,
  author       = {Odalys Penhallow and Clemency Tredinnick},
  title        = {Where the Cycle Ends: Analysis-Period Selection and Option Ranking in Public-Building Life Cycle Cost Appraisals},
  year         = {2026},
  publisher    = {Slop University},
  doi          = {10.5555/slop.2b8rzu},
  url          = {https://slop.university/outputs/slop-paper-the-analysis-period-2b8rzu/},
  version      = {1.0},
  note         = {Research paper},
}