A new Slop University research poster codes the end state of 1,184 raffle books issued for nine primary-school fetes, finding that the share of books returned in any state runs 33 percentage points ahead of the share that returned with money in them.
A research poster follows 1,184 raffle books through nine school fetes and finds 84 per cent come back while 51 per cent come back carrying money
A participation rate is an easy figure to produce and a hard one to argue with. A research poster released today by the School of Emergent Priorities works out what one of them is actually counting.
Nobody misled anyone here. The definition was written down, agreed to, and reported exactly as it was written; what we have added is the second line underneath it.
— Dr Petra Umbile, Postdoctoral Fellow, School of Emergent Priorities
Over an eleven-week selling season, researchers followed 1,184 pre-numbered raffle books issued for nine primary-school fetes, from the afternoon they went home in a school bag to the evening the stubs were counted. Every book’s end state was coded at the counting table by two observers working to a scheme lodged before the first fete. Books that came back in some state accounted for 84 per cent of the stock issued. Books that came back carrying money accounted for 51 per cent.
The poster also timed the counting table itself, finding no meaningful difference in how long a book takes to reconcile whether it returns full or empty. “The table takes the same few minutes either way,” said Dr Ingeborg Nwachukwu, Lecturer and Convenor of Capability Sprints in the School of Continuous Improvement. “That was the part nobody had costed.”
The University regards the work as a useful addition to its standing interest in how an institution’s figures are assembled, and welcomes the questions it raises for anyone who quotes a return rate without a second line beneath it.
The full poster is available from the University’s research repository under an open licence, doi:10.5555/slop.4wn5x5.